Kenya elections: State Dept declassifies memo of Jan 3, 2008 telecon between Secretary Rice and H.R. Javier Solana on “power sharing”

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I originally sought this document in a separate FOIA in 2009 because it seemed to me in Nairobi in real time as Chief of Party for the USAID-funded exit poll and election observation programs that this Rice/Solana conversation marked a key  point for Kibaki in locking down a second term. Up until that time, as best I could tell, the EU supported remediation of the bad election (stolen through bribery as I was told by a diplomatic source later that January during the continued violence as I have written) whereas US Ambassador Ranneberger moved to support “power sharing” as soon as the initial U.S. congratulations to Kibaki were withdrawn.  That same day the Kenyan Attorney General called for an investigation of the alleged election results (such an investigation never in substance happened, although it was a key proviso of the February 2008 settlement agreement between Kibaki on behalf of PNU and Odinga on behalf of ODM and the legislation entering the deal into Kenyan law).

The document was withheld in full on national security grounds in the original 2010 FOIA response and again on appeal, then again in 2016 on a follow up Mandatory Declassification Review request after the requisite two year wait.  Today’s mail was the favorable response to my September 2016 appeal..

See from my page with a chronology of links for the election (in particular BBC’s January 3 “Tic-Toc”):

A CHRONOLOGY IN LINKS:

EA Standard–”Envoy predicts free and fair election” (and praises Kenyan administration on corruption), Dec 18 07

Daily Nation–”Local Firm Conducted Exit Poll Expected to Give Provisional Presidential Results”, Dec 28 07

Somaliland Times–”Kenya: Preliminary Findings of IRI’s International Election Observation Mission” Dec 28 ’07

IRI–“Reuters cites IRI Opinion on Kenyan election” Dec. 28 ’07 

EU Election Observation–Statement on Announcement of Presidential Results, Dec 30 ’07

VOA–”US Congratulates Kenya Presidential Vote Winner, EU Monitors Question Results” Dec 30, ’07

Global Voices–“Is Kenya turning into a police state?” Dec 31 07

Telegraph-“Kenya could be facing it’s greatest crisis” Dec 31 07

VOA–”Britain Expresses Concern About Kenyan Election Results” Dec 31 07

EU Election Observation–Preliminary Statement, Jan 1 08

NY Times–”Fighting Intensifies After Election in Kenya” Jan 1, ’08

Telegraph–EU calls for inquiry into Kenya election Jan 1 ’08

Slate–”What’s Really Going on in Kenya?” Jan 2, ’08

USAToday- “Kenyan official calls for vote probe” Jan 3, ’08

BBC- “At a glance: Kenya unrest” Jan 3, ’08

CBS/National Review Online–”Inside Kenya’s Clumsily Rigged Election” Jan 4, ’08

IFES–“Kenya at the crossroads” Jan 4, ’08

Exit Polls and Orange Revolutions; Ukraine and Kenya

From Ben Barber, senior writer at USAID during the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, as quoted from a McClatchy piece on Egypt in a previous post:

The Ukraine’s Orange Revolution in 2004 might never have taken place if not for U.S. aid. First, the former communists in control of the Kiev government declared their candidate won an election. Then, a U.S.-funded think tank tallied up exit polls that showed the government had lied and it really lost the election.

Next, a Ukranian TV newsman trained by a U.S. aid program broadcast the exit polls and set up its cameras on the main square for an all night vigil. Up to one million people came to join the vigil. Then the Supreme Court — which had been brought to visit U.S. courts in action — ruled the election was invalid and the government had to step down.

Furthermore, U.S. legal, legislative, journalism and other trainers taught judges, prosecutors, legislators and journalists how to do their jobs in a democratic system.

From U.S. Ambassador Michael Ranneberger’s January 2, 2008 cable to Washington after witnessing fraud at the ECK  in the tally of presidential votes along with the head of the EU Election Observation Mission: “We have been reliably told that Odinga is basing his strategy on a mass action approach similar to that carried out in the Ukraine.”

In Kenya, however, unlike in Ukraine, the U.S.-funded exit poll was suppressed rather than broadcast.  The New York Times reported that USAID’s agreement with the International Republican Institute to fund the poll stipulated that IRI should consult with USAID and the Embassy before releasing the poll, taking into account technical quality and “other diplomatic considerations”.  (The USAID agreement was subquently, eventually, released to Clark Gibson of the UCSD, the primary author of the poll and consultant to IRI, under a FOIA request.)

Here is an account of the opposition approach in Ukraine from Wikipedia on the Orange Revolution:

Yanukovych was officially certified as the victor by the Central Election Commission, which itself was allegedly involved in falsification of electoral results by withholding the information it was receiving from local districts and running a parallel illegal computer server to manipulate the results. The next morning after the certification took place, Yushchenko spoke to supporters in Kiev, urging them to begin a series of mass protests, general strikes and sit-ins with the intent of crippling the government and forcing it to concede defeat.

In view of the threat of illegitimate government acceding to power, Yushchenko’s camp announced the creation of the Committee of National Salvation which declared a nationwide political strike.

Ranneberger noted that the situations in Ukraine and Kenya differed, but did not elaborate.    In Ukraine there was ultimately a re-vote and in Kenya the election results stood. How was Kenya in 2007 different from Ukraine in 2004?  Comments?