Two more breakthroughs on documenting the fraud in Kibaki’s 2007 re-election (the War for History part 21)

The recent feature “Stolen Ballot: Inside the bitter 2007 presidential election heist” from Kenya’s leading commercial television broadcaster NTV features some of the people directly involved in the logistics of delivering that announcement of “results” of the election by Electoral Commission of Kenya chairman Samuel Kivuitu through the state broadcaster KBC even though we have documented from my #FOIA research that Kivuitu had not wanted to do so. [Not that it wasn’t obvious on live television in Kenya in real time that Kivuitu was alarmed by what was going on with the submission of the results before the Minister of Internal Security John Michuki shut down live broadcasting.]

is the story of some of the people the late Kivuitu said “should not have been born” in his first press availability from his back yard during early stages of the Post Election Violence following the swearing in when he said that he did not know who had won in spite of making the announcement and providing the certificate for Kibaki’s twilight swearing in at State House.

It describes an operation from State House to strong arm Kivuitu with confessional testimony of some of those directly involved.

This dovetails with my previous reporting that I was told by a diplomat that his country had learned that Returning Agents had been paid “life changing amounts of money” to turn off their phones and drop out of contact with Kivuitu’s IEBC headquarters to allow the results in their constituencies to be “marked up” for Kibaki.

https://youtu.be/7YBoYS-VHDc?si=d5apA_jAtDrTAkX8

Last year Martha Karua, Kibaki’s Justice Minister during the 2007 election and leader of Kibaki’s mediation team during the failed mediation published her memoir “Against the Tide”revealing that during her visit to Kenya in support of the negotiations US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told Kibaki to his face that “You know Mr. President, you never won.”

Reading the Kenya material in the DOJ’s response to date to Congressionally mandated Epstein file release

A lot to come to grips with in terms of Kenya’s role as a playground for international elites, often pretending to do “philanthropy” while playing, investing and intriguing.

Back in 2019 I took note of the situation but I did not anticipate then that someday the Justice Department would release perhaps half their records seized from and related to Epstein;

For example –

From: Sultan Bin Sulayem

Sent: Friday, October 24, 2014 10:41 PM

To: Jeffrey Epstein

Subject: Kenya

Attachments: IMG_6878.1PG; Untitled attachment 00010.txt; IMG_6879JPG; Untitled attachment

00013.txt; IMG_6880JPG; Untitled attachment 00016.txt

I am in Mombasa had a three hour meeting with president Uhuru Kenyata we ar= going to build a big logistic park to

serve Kenya south Sudan Uganda centr=l African republic and Rawanda Sultan

————/

To: jeevacationeNmaitcom[jeevacation©gmail.com]

Cc:

From: Peggy Siegal

Sent Mon 5/11/2009 9:32:50 PM

Subject: Kenya

Title: Kenya

As Paula just mentioned • the girls not only showed up for the conference call• but are now totally excited about going.

Sandy Cunningham knows exactly what to do and is giving the girls a few choices…but has them interning all over

Africa. Our luck, they will bring home Masai warriors…

We arc all kissing the ground you walk on and the African plains the girls arc about to ride on.

xoxo Peggy

——/

From: Lauren C <

Sent: Monday, April 24, 2017 1:32 PM

To: Soon-Yi Previn

Cc: Jeffrey Epstein

Subject: Bechet’s Habitat for Humanity Trip

Hi,

Bechet’s trip will start in Nairobi, Kenya (that’s where they will fly into.) She will then go to =b class=””>Homa Bay,

Kenya, the town they will be building in. A =escription from Google: Homa Bay is bay and town on the south shore of Winam Gulf of Lake Victoria, in western Kenya. The mayor of Homa Bay city is Veronica Achieng’ ohana.

Itinerary

• Day 1, welcome: Fly into Nairobi, Kenya, where Habitat for Humanity staff will pick you up at the airport. Meet your team over dinner.

• Day 2, Orientation: Habitat staff will introduce you to their sophisticated work across Kenya, which includes microloans and health programs in addition to building. Travel to your host community near Homa Bay.

• Days =-6, Build: Build new houses or housing repairs. One day will include a cultural activity, such as a tour, cooking lesson or visit to a natural site. At night, reflect with your team and enjoy free time.

• Day 7, Celebrate: Build, then wrap up =onstruction at a farewell celebration with your partner family and neighbors.

• Day 8, Reflect: Drive back to Nairobi. At the final team dinner, reflect on your experience and what it means.

• Day 9, Goodbyes: depart for home or independently continue your travel in Africa.

Lauren

Lauren Cheung

Assistant to Woody Allen

MANHATTAN FILM CENTER

575 Park Avenue

New York, NY 10065

———-/

From: Lesley Groff

To: Darren Indyke

Subject: Jeffrey’s 2nd Passport

Date: Wed, 01 May 2013 16:56:07 +0000

Attachments: Scan_14.pdf

Jeffrey wants his 2nd passport renewed…he responded with below:

kenya, south africa, china june 1- 30

I am having an itinerary made with Amex to Nairobi, Kenya on June 1, Cape Town, South Africa on June 11 and on to Beijing, China on June 18, back to NY arriving June 29(sound good!?)

I am also filling out other forms that need to be signed by JE…can you please tweak the below letter so it will represent what JE is and what company he is president of and etc. with the towns and dates I have provided?

Raila leaves the race . . .

Raila Odinga Kenya president campaign

[Update: since I have not been actively writing here for several months, I may have been a bit hasty in offering here an assessment of Raila’s immediate legacy in current Kenyan politics upon hearing the news of his unfortunate passing from heart failure in India. Those who grew up with Raila’s role in opposing dictatorship through brutal detention and have stayed continuously emotionally engaged with Kenya over the years—especially Kenyans, who do not have the option of pulling back as I have as an American —will feel the weight of a mighty tree falling and the sudden change of light, landscape and horizon. In other words, this post may have been a bit “too soon” as well as superficial. I will endeavor to do more justice to Raila’s impact ahead after the initial memorials.]

[See also the eulogy and remembrance in The Kenya Times from former US Ambassador Michael Ranneberger who served through the 2006-07 campaign and election and PEV, the peace deal and the constitutional referendum under Government of National Unity during Kibaki’s second term. And Jeffrey Gettleman remembering Raila campaigning in 2007 to be denied by the blatant rigging.

Raila’s primary definitive legacy is Kenya’s 2010 Constitution, negotiated as a result of his 2007 campaign which I believe clearly garnered the most votes and led him to the temporary but critical post of Prime Minister for Kibaki’s second term from 2008-2013 as part of the February 28 peace deal between Raila and Kibaki.

The peace deal did not result in the fully formed power sharing contemplated but it was enough to get to a reform Constitution through the elite establishment gauntlet so long as the sole executive power of the presidency was retained (in other words, the Prime Minister position would go away). Devolution, the Supreme Court and many rights that we can hope will eventually come to fruition for Kenyans did result and have created real change.

For my explanation of Raila’s 2007 election, aside from many blog posts categorized and tagged accordingly, see my piece in The Elephant: “The Debacle of 2007: How Kenyan Politics Was Frozen and an Election Stolen With US Connivance.”

Raila’s other legacy is the enduring ODM party itself. The party unfortunately has been in jeopardy in recent years as being without a clear identity with Raila’s handshakes with first Uhuru Kenyatta, then William Ruto. Collaboration with Kenyatta had a clear rationale in achieving Kenyatta’s support for Raila and running mate Martha Karua, intending to stop a Ruto succession. The recent support for Ruto, however, heading into a 2027 re-election campaign, has been hard to square with the notions of the Orange Democratic Movement advertised over the years.

It has been awhile now since Raila was carrying the torch as a reformist leader himself and I will hope that this legacy can now come to greater fruition with younger generations, through a re-tooled ODM and new avenues to compete with ossified elite capture.

See from Africa Report, “Raila Odinga: the man who lost every election but won Kenya’s democracy.”


Condolences to the famiky and their many friends and supporters.

[Updated] Ruto term nears halfway point as USAID is strangled and Kenyan politics faces disruption from loss at Raila AUC vote Saturday

Update 2-15: Raila fell short to Djibouti’s candidate in the 7th round of voting.

If Raila Odinga doesn’t win his election for Chairman of the African Union Commission on Saturday then Ruto on one hand and the ODM Party on the other will have to face the question of how to repurpose Raila within Kenya’s political establishment. Will he return to the customary role as opposition presidential candidate? Will he and Ruto reach a deal on a new alternative role to keep him and his key loyalists “onside” with the Ruto presidency?

Is there any chance that he would take some “senior statesman” status within ODM and/or the opposition more broadly and not move toward a run for the Presidency in 2027?

What will be the impact of the demise of US democracy assistance, being cemented as this is written, have on the hugely delayed preparations for the 2027 elections?

Mzalendo reports today on claims that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission—intended to be a permanent Government of Kenya institution under the 2010 Constitution—may have a selection panel in place by April of this year to start the process of selecting Commissioners. USAID has been the leading donor for process for decades.

See this piece from The Standard:

Addis setback, a political turning point for both opposition and government

He returns home empty handed, leaving his admirers divided and his detractors wary. There are those who want the Raila to take up his role of calling the government back to order.www.standardmedia.co.ke

Raila Odinga Kenya president campaign

Meanwhile, Michelle Gavin at CFR calls out “accountability gone missing” for Ruto in Kenya

Accountability gone missing in Kenya

“In the wake of last year’s Gen Z protests, Kenyan President William Ruto had two choices. He could accept the youthful population’s rejection of business as usual and get serious about cleaning up corruption in government, aiming to ride the wave of enthusiasm for change to usher in a new political paradigm based on delivering for voters rather than knitting together a coalition of self-serving elites. Or he could revert to darker days of Kenyan history, using political violence to suppress dissent and cow the public. He chose the latter path.

. . . .

The result is, as the Kenyan Conference of Catholic Bishops put it, an attempt to make everyone complicit in a “culture of lies.” In a statement issued last November, the group lamented, “Basically it seems that truth does not exist, and if it does, it is only what the Government says.” It’s a political scenario that deserves close watching. How does a society that has lost faith in its political class but not necessarily in its own ability to affect change react to obvious untruths coming from official sources, to threats and violence, and to an attempt to distort the very idea of truth? How can Kenyans continue to center the ideas that energized a nationwide movement for change while contending with old attempts to divide them and this latest intentional shirking of responsibility at the very top? The answers will matter a great deal to Kenya’s future, and to the prospects for democracies in peril far beyond Kenya’s borders.”

Ruto made his big career move from the 2008 Post Election Violence and being a target of the failed attempts at accountability. So no right to be surprised.

Old Party Office in Kibera
Solo 7–Kibera

A good piece explaining “Why Kenya’s protests are different this time”.

Happy Saba Saba Day.

A range of Kenyan voices have been saying that the current “Gen Z” protest movement has already generated an irrevocable shift in Kenyan politics and/or even Kenyan society.

I suspect that veteran professional “Kenya watchers” and analysts in interested foreign capitols are not yet sure about that.

Here is a good piece in The Conversation by Owino Okech at SOAS that I find useful in assessing the durability of the movement:Kenya’s protests are different this time: 3 things that make it harder for government to crush them.”

Retrospective thoughts on Ruto in Washington – “Disneyfication”, “clientitus”, UAE concern, and the audacity of hope.

Foreign Policy Africa Brief:

Ruto’s divisive power. In the ContinentKiri Rupiah reports on the increasing divide in international and domestic opinion regarding Kenyan President William Ruto, noting the disconnect between the U.S. government’s embrace of Ruto and his low approval ratings at home.

His recent U.S. visit was overshadowed by criticism at home over tax hikes, wasteful expenses, and alleged government corruption. Ruto’s political career began murkily: The International Criminal Court charged him in 2011 with three counts of crimes against humanity related to the ethnic violence that followed Kenya’s 2007 election but later abandoned the case, and Ruto reinvented himself as a key U.S. ally. “In a tradition that changes cast but not much of the script, the US has named its new man in Africa,” Rupiah writes.

The Continent: “Washington completes the Disneyfication of William Ruto; in a tradition that changes cast, but not much of the script, the US has named its new man in Africa” by Kiri Rupiah, p.8

Personally, I am choosing to be hopeful, not that Ruto is not who he has shown himself to be through his participation in election violence and corruption, but rather that greater investment subsidized and supported by the US will help create badly needed jobs for Kenyans.

A visit to Washington this spring identified Ambassador Whittman as being seen in diplomatic circles as having a conspicuous case of “clientitus”.

After returning home, President Ruto admitted at the Prayer Breakfast that he had hitched a ride to Washington on a chartered jet provided by “friends”, who turned out to be the UAE—the same Emiratis who also back the RSF which is committing murder and mayhem in Sudan and melt most of the illicit smuggled gold from the region, along with hosting all sorts of sanction busting and money laundering. But they have a lot of cash to spend around Washington as well as Nairobi and anywhere else that cash is welcome.

I noted that former President Obama seemed to be staying slightly aloof to “Rutofest”, perhaps because of the Post Election Violence background?

And here is former Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of State Johnnie Carson for the United States Institute for Peace: “America’s Vital 21st Century Partnership with Africa—and Kenya’s Key Role”.

Kenya ICC Pawa254

Excellent preview from Michelle Gavin at CFR as Ruto arrives in Washington

A Preview of Kenya’s State Visit” at the Council on Foreign Relations “Africa in Transition” blog.

Kenya Nairobi airshow parachutist with Kenyan flad

Key takeaway:

The objective for the United States should be to maximize the pursuit of genuine shared interests with Kenya without personalizing the relationship. Ruto and his allies have deftly countered existing and potential political threats at home while vociferously criticizing judicial decisions that do not go their way. A potential Kenyan trajectory in which Ruto faces no serious challenges or checks while the broader population becomes increasingly disaffected is bad news for Kenya, bad for U.S. interests, and bad for democracy.”

And:

“Regardless of whether Whitman’s business-focused approach is successful, it garners praise for its intensity.” From headline piece in Politico on next opportunities for our “different kind” of Ambassador to Kenya as Ruto arrives for State visit.

A circle not an arc: Ruto and Biden re-enact Kenyan-American history with a reprise of the Kibaki-Bush State Dinner of 2003

Kenya 2007 PEV Make Peace Stop Violence

Before the exposure of the Anglo Leasing security sector corruption and other scandals Mwai Kibaki was in quite good books with the Bush Administration in Washington.

Kibaki’s 2002 election victory could be seen at the time as a feather in the cap for Bush’s “freedom agenda” in Africa. Kibaki was a core establishment insider who had served for 10 years as Daniel arap Moi’s vice president during Cold War era single party KANU rule, but had been democratically elected as titular head of a broad “opposition” coalition after the Bush Administration squeezed Moi to honor term limits and allow succession after 24 years and Moi chose his predecessor’s son Uhuru as his intended successor over more senior KANU leaders. (The best of both worlds for us Americans from a strictly diplomatic/foreign relations standpoint.)

Kibaki was used to dealing with the American government going back at least as far as arms purchases during the Gerald Ford Administration with Henry Kissinger as Secretary of State.

A lot has happened since October 2003, but not so much of it has been in Kenya. The biggest single change in Kenya has been population growth (with relatively flat human development). No big fluctuations on corruption or security, etc. and some worsening of an already challenging climate.

Ruto is another first term Kenyan president in very good books in Washington. An establishment protege of Daniel arap Moi who is seen as having had an oppositionist wrinkle to his 2022 election as President as the sitting incumbent Vice President by the fact that the outgoing incumbent President, his erstwhile running mate, Uhuru Kenyatta (also an American favorite while President and close to important Americans before taking office) tried to throw him over for his new “handshake” partner Raila Odinga.

Now, Ruto has a handshake deal of his own to back Odinga for the AU Commission chair as an alternative to domestic Kenyan opposition leadership.

The one big event in Kenya between 2003 and 2024 was Kibaki’s stolen 2007 re-election and the ensuing murder and mayhem as Kenya went “to the brink of civil war”. But as they say, “it’s been a minute”.

And since both the election fraud and the Post Election Violence successfully achieved their objectives it’s hard to find time to remember who was killing whom after so many years.

Externally, the current round of war in Somalia started a little more than two years after Kibaki’s 2003 State Dinner. The Second Kibaki Administration itself invaded Somalia in 2010 and 14 years later the beat goes on. And diplomatically we need Nairobi as a place from which to address any saving of Darfur and democratizing or at least stabilizing Southern/South Sudan as we did back in 2003. A new bonus is the chance to pay to get some of Kenya’s police force out of the country for awhile while also putting African boots on Haitian ground.

I guess the one word that I would choose to fit the Ruto-Biden State Dinner is “predictable”.

See “Disillusion grows in Kenya as Biden hosts Ruto for a historic state visit” in Semafor.

Book bitings: I read Ahmed Isaack Hassan’s memoir from his time at Kenya’s IIEC and IEBC and promised to engage.

I will do a series of posts here to accompany my agreement to engage with former Chairman Hassan after reading his memoir Referee of a Dirty Ugly Game: In the Theatre of Kenya’s Elections — an Insider’s Account. This is an introduction.

I learned a lot about the Chairman’s personal background, his family, his personal and professional networks, in particular involving his previous political service in unsuccessful constitutional reform endeavors in Mwai Kibaki’s first term, his law practice and work for the UN on Somalia. I learned his personal opinions about several politicians, and many actors in various positions in the Kenyan government and in the Kenyan social and business establishment.

I learned a lot about Ahmed Isaack Hassan, how he sees himself and wants to be seen.

Certainly Hassan has been presented by some who were involved with him in running, presenting and defending the 2013 election as a hero for getting through a process in which power was passed from Kibaki to Kenyatta and Ruto without Kenya “burning”. It is in this context a memoir of this sort fits.

To the extent that this was what Hassan was appointed to do then he did deliver and this is his chance to box his critics. Undoubtedly he was put “through the wringer” to an extreme degree and treated badly in various respects as so many people trying to fulfill positions of public trust are in Kenya and one has to have empathy for the impossible position. Thank God he wasn’t murdered like IT Director Chris Msando from the successor IEBC in 2017.

Unfortunately I did not learn as much as I hoped to about the questions that I raised in this blog and elsewhere about the specifics of the 2013 elections.

I learned that he had and has dismissive and negative opinions of organized civil society generally and people that I worked with to some extent and have liked and admired but I am not very clear why for the most part. Part of it may be that his deference as an insider himself to Kibaki and his establishment executive branch apparatus leads him to have little empathy for a role for outsiders. In particular he evinces no real concern for fraud in the 2007 presidential tally and no moral qualms – as opposed to concerns of international relations – implicated by the question of the participation of candidates in 2013 who were involved in the 2007-08 Post Election Violence.

In particular, the heavily redacted contract materials for IFES from the initial responses to my Freedom of Information Act requests several years ago were much more informative regarding some issues involved in the mechanics of the election and point the way to other sources.

This is the kind of thing that I would be grateful to engage on with the former Chairman.

Of course, ultimately there is a “glass half full or half empty” problem about the 2013 election that will not be fully reconcilable among Kenyans about their own democracy with their own perspectives and interests. On the other hand, for me as an outsider without a “dog in the hunt” directly it seems unequivocal that the glass is partly full of liquid and partly full of air and it is simply a matter of fact to identify what is what even though the significance and value derived from the facts will be a matter of individual judgment for Kenyans.

Sometimes people just have different values and priorities. But maybe 10 years after the fact there is more room for discourse and persuasion than there was in the heat of the struggle.

TO BE CONTINUED. . . .