Category Archives: Uganda

More on Moi, KANU and Ruto meetings with Museveni

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The Nairobi Star reported this week (link via allafrica.com) that ex-president Moi and aides were in Kampala for three days of meetings with Museveni in the midst of his busy re-election schedule, and goes through some of the history between the two. Combined with the recent Ruto and KANU visits there appears to be a particular interest by Museveni in politicians from Kenya’s Rift Valley.
Why? Certainly Moi and his associate Biwott of KANU are extremely wealthy and control vast business assets in the region by virtue of Moi’s time as a KANU leader and especially as President–so in that sense any poltician might naturally seek them out–but there seems to be more to this. Something interesting to watch.

Museveni and Kenyan Politics, with America watching

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The interplay of Ugandan and Kenyan politics continues, as covered in a fascinating story in the Standard, “Why Museveni is warming up to Kenyan politicians”. Well worth reading the whole thing.

Aside from the oil and ethnicity issues mentioned in the story, it is worth keeping in mind the value to Kenya–and to the United States–of Uganda’s troops serving in the AMISOM mission in Somalia. See the Jendayi Frazer interview with CFR.org from January 2008 on the impact of the post-election violence in Kenya in delaying a planned deployment to Somalia.

On the “Diplomacy or Assistance?” topic we will once again have dual U.S.-funded election observations for the Ugandan election in February, both the U.S. Embassy and IRI, like in Kenya. I have been waiting for well more than a year now for a response to my Freedom of Information Act request for the documentation behind the public statements made by the Embassy in Kenya about their observation of the Kenyan election. It will be interesting to see how transparent things are in Uganda this time.

See my April post “Odinga and Museveni, ICC”; and from January, “Secretary Clinton Keynote at National Prayer Breakfast and Museveni”, and “Somalia/Somaliland, Moi, Uganda . . . “

Millennium Challenge Corporation releases country scores for FY 2011 eligibility determinations

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The MCC Board is to make decisions on eligibility of individual countries for Compact or Threshold status on December 15. The MCC uses 17 indicators in three categories to rate the performance of eligible countries against their peers as a key input in the selection process. Here are links to the scorecards for East Africa and the overall "Scorebook" with more information.

Kenya Scorecard

Uganda

Rwanda

Ethiopia

Tanzania

MCC 2011 Scorebook

Ugandan Reporter for Radio Simba remains missing a week after being “whisked away”

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Journalist abduction (International Freedom of Expression Clearing House on allafrica.com) (See also Jina Moore blog)

IMG_5610_r1A Radio Simba journalist, Arafat Nzito, has been missing since 3 November 2010 and his whereabouts remain unknown.

Nzito, 23 years old, was picked up by plain-clothed men in a Toyota vehicle at around 2:00 p.m. from the Radio Simba offices.

He is a resident of Kitintale, Nakawa division, in Kampala, Uganda’s capital city.

Radio Simba’s chief news editor, Emmanuel Okello, told Human Rights Network for Journalists-Uganda (HRNJ-Uganda) that Nzito’s disappearance followed him receiving numerous phone calls about meeting some people in the station’s parking lot, about 30 meters away.

Nzito left his work half done and went to meet these people but he never returned to complete filing his news story. He did not return the following day either.

According to an eye witness who declined to be identified, Nzito was whisked away by four men in a vehicle with tinted windows at around 2:30 p.m. He first talked to them before he sat in the back seat in between two men. The witness did not notice the car registration number.

Coke–Africa’s Largest Employer: BusinessWeek Cover Story

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CK Blue Cat Joint

Africa: Coke’s Last Frontier in BusinessWeek.

In Uganda, Red Coke and Blue Pepsi compete in Kampala and across the Ugandan countryside. In Kenya, it seems that all the generally available “brands” are Coke products.

[Update:  See Cola Wars Return to Kenya]

Transparency International Annual Corruption Perception Index released [corrected and updated]

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The new Transparency International corruption perception rankings for 2010 have been released today.

For East Africa:

66 Rwanda (4.0 score on a scale of 10) [up from 3.3 for 2009]
116 Ethiopia (2.7) [unchanged]
116 Tanzania (2.7) [up from 2.6]
127 Uganda (2.5) [unchanged]
154 Kenya (2.1) [down from 2.2]
170 Burundi (1.8) [unchanged]
172 Sudan (1.6) [up from 1.5]
178 Somalia (1.1–lowest) [unchanged]

The United States dropped to 22nd with a 7.1 score.

The new report was drawn from surveys taken from January 2009 to September 2010.

For these listed East African countries, there was no demonstrated significant change from 2009 to 2010.

Given its methodology, the CPI is not a tool that is
suitable for trend analysis or for monitoring changes in the
perceived levels of corruption over time for all countries.
Year-to-year changes in a country/territory’s score can
result from a change in the perceptions of a country’s
performance, a change in the ranking provided by original
sources or changes in the methodology resulting from TI’s
efforts to improve the index.
If a country is featured in one or more specific data
sources for both of the last two CPIs (2009 CPI and 2010
CPI), those sources can be used to identify whether there
has been a change in perceived levels of corruption in
that particular country compared to the previous year.
TI has used this approach in 2010 to assess country
progress over the past year and to identify what can be
considered to be a change in perceptions of corruption.
These assessments use two criteria:
(a) there is a year-on-year change of at least 0.3 points in
a country’s CPI score, and
(b) the direction of this change is confirmed by more than
half of the data sources evaluating that country.
Based on these criteria, the following countries showed
an improvement from 2009 to 2010: Bhutan, Chile, Ecuador,
FYR Macedonia, Gambia, Haiti, Jamaica, Kuwait and
Qatar. The following countries showed deterioration from
2009 to 2010: the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary,
Italy, Madagascar, Niger and the United States.

Uganda, Iran and the Security-Democracy Trade Space?

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Secretary of State Clinton noted this week to the African Chiefs of Mission the Africa Bureau’s efforts on wrangling votes for Iran sanctions:

The bureau was enormously helpful in rounding up votes for the sanctions resolution on Iran – Gabon, Nigeria, Uganda, thank you, because it wasn’t easy. I think I talked to President Museveni three times and Johnnie visited him several times. But – end result was we got strong African support for the international sanctions regime. We are building, and in some – many cases, rebuilding collaboration not only along bilateral lines, but multilateral alliances, most especially in our collaboration and engagement with the African Union, because it’s very important that we do more to build up the African Union and other regional entities like the East African Community, which has a real potential for being an engine of economic prosperity. [emphasis added]

Secretary Clinton’s Remarks at African Chiefs of Mission Conference

Tensions continue building over Uganda’s February 2011 elections–see yesterday’s news about opposition plans for a parallel electronic vote count and the Ugandan government’s strident reaction.

Carl LeVan has an excellent discussion of "Democratization and Securitization in Uganda" that I would highly recommend.

The ruling NRM has cleverly adopted the Global War on Terrorism as a political resource. Even before the terrorist bombing in the capital in July 2010, the government began closing political space in the name of national security while it successfully obtained aid commitments from the United States to fight counter-insurgency wars, one of which is against the brutal Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) in the north.

. . . .

Looking beyond the Pentagon, Washington is clearly aware of Uganda’s governance drift. For example the US announced that will not renew 10 million dollars committed through Millennium Challenge Corporation to help Uganda move from “threshold” status to a full compact (ie, an agreement) for aid. USAID’s plans call for strengthening democratic institutions, enhancing political competition, and improving parliamentary capacity for oversight through partnerships with civil society. Unfortunately USAID faces an uphill battle, with no increases in the lines funding for either for civil society programs or for its good governance in Uganda, and cuts are planned for programs relating to “political competition and consensus building.” Even aid to fight transnational crime is slated for cuts.

In addition to all the regional security issues involving Somalia, Sudan, Congo and the Lord’s Resistance Army, the Iran sanctions issue adds another interesting twist. I noted back in May that Assistant Secretary Carson and AFRICOM Commander General Ward were seeking Museveni’s support on Iran sanctions during a visit to Kampala, as well as pushing for Museveni to relinquish unilateral control of the Electoral Commission. The U.S. succeeded in persuading Uganda to support sanctions, but did not secure action on the Electoral Commission. Both worthy goals, but is there a trade off?

It is also interesting to note a report that Uganda has now been working with Iran to create a joint bank as a mechanism to allow Uganda to obtain access to $46M in pledged Iranian credits that have impeded by the sanctions:

[A] memo prepared by the ministry for Parliament’s public accounts committee, in response to an audit query, said that sanctions had complicated the money transfer. "The ministry has followed up the implementation of this line of credit. However, it has faced challenges, especially following the imposition of sanctions on Iran," said the memo.

"In a bid to overcome the difficulty in transferring funds to and from Iran because of sanctions and to promote investment and trade, the two countries agreed on the establishment of a bank as a joint venture as the best way forward," it said.

Open Society Report–Uganda Not Prepared for Free Election; U.S. options?

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From AFP in the Daily Nation:

Uganda’s election panel has failed to establish conditions required to hold a free and fair vote less than five months before a scheduled general election, according to report seen by AFP Wednesday.

Intimidation of the opposition and media censorship both remain pervasive and the ruling party uses government structures for political purposes, says the report commissioned by Open Society Initiative for eastern Africa, a pro-democracy group linked to American billionaire George Soros.

OSIEA hired as lead author the UN’s Special Rapporteur on the Situation of Human Rights defenders, Margaret Sekaggya, though the document is not a UN report.

“The electoral commission’s failure to address constant harassment, arrests and intimidation which political groups… are subjected to by police and Kiboko (stick wielding) squads has severely undermined its credibility,” the report says.

“The commission must also address the denial of freedom of expression and speech, especially the domination of broadcast media by the government and ruling party.”

The report states it is too late for Uganda to establish ground work for a free vote, which will likely be held in late February.

This obviously presents a difficult situation for U.S. policy makers. We are training Somali soldiers in Uganda in an environment of heightened tension following the World Cup bombings in Kampala, as well as training the Ugandan military and supporting their deployment in Somalia in the AMISOM mission.

If we know that the election is simply not going to be fully legitimate up front, what are our options? We could, for instance, support Museveni in the run up to the election on the theory that since he is going to stay in power anyway, it is better to help him make it look good to promote stability. And if violence breaks out, we can support nominal power sharing of some type to placate the opposition elites. We could bring open pressure now and try to broker some type of pre-election agreement to change the environment at least to some extent–or do something similar quietly. We could stay neutral and support the process as best we can without a specific agenda and maximize our position to contribute to problem-solving in the aftermath as honest brokers. Interesting choices.

New Mo Ibrahim Foundation rankings for African Governments

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Here are the 2010 Ibrahim Index rankings for the East African Community members, plus Ethiopia and Sudan, out of 53 African countries. Overall ranking to left, "Participation and Human Rights" in parenthesis to the right:

15 Tanzania (56.37)
24 Uganda (50.84)
27 Kenya (55.47)
31 Rwanda (37.94)
32 Burundi (48.63)

34 Ethiopia (34.58)
48 Sudan (23.08)

Friday Reading

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Texas in Africa has the run down on today’s release of the UN human rights mapping report on the DRC.

Of special interest for East Africa is how this plays out in regard to Museveni now, aside from Rwanda and Burundi. Museveni has recently spoken of withdrawing from support of AMISOM in reaction to the criticism–while his offer to of tens of thousands of additional troops has remained outstanding. Kenya has been calling for more troops for AMISOM for months, and has made noise about changing the arrangements to send its own forces. Kenya’s Foreign Minister Wetangula has said that the international community should stop wasting vast amounts on the anti-piracy maritime efforts and spend the money for "national building" with the TFG, which includes the ramping up of AMISOM. Kenya watchers will remember that Wetangula was one of Kibaki’s core appointments of the key ministries following the 2007 elections prior to the Kofi Annan-led mediation between PNU and ODM. PNU has had some ties with Museveni’s NRM.

In Kenya, the human rights community is deeply offended by the renditions of alleged terrorism suspects to Uganda without due process, while the government has leaked a report showing planned attacks in Nairobi in conjunction with the Kampala bombing during the World Cup. At a time when Kenya needs to focus on the hard work of implementation of the new constitution, the neighborhood keeps getting messier.

On a lighter note, check out the backpackers guide to Somaliland on the Medeshivalley.com blog.