Kenya: Today’s Presidential Announcement of Tullow Oil Drilling Find in Turkana (several weeks ago) Coincides with News of Major Cabinet Shakeup

“Kenya Strikes Oil in Turkana”, Capital FM

NAIROBI, Kenya, Mar 26 – After years of prospecting, Kenya has finally made a breakthrough by striking oil in Turkana County in the north, with focus now shifting to exploring its commercial viability.

The discovery of the light, waxy oil was made in a half-way drilled Ngamia-1 exploration well, raising expectations that there could be huge reserves once the total depth of 2,700 metres is reached.

“The well has been drilled to an initial depth of 1,041 metres and it will continue to a total depth of about 2,700 metres to explore for deeper potential in this prospect,” Energy Minister Kiraitu Murungi said at a press briefing.

President Mwai Kibaki was the first to break the news earlier in the day. . . . .

The Nation’s “Big Story” is on the Cabinet.

The reshuffle seems hugely consequential in Kenya’s election year politics:  it certainly appears that Kibaki has made a large gesture toward realigning the Cabinet toward the “G7 Alliance” which has lingered as both the primary political vehicle to advocate for Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto against the ICC and most visible successor to much of the PNU apparatus from 2007-08.

The most prominent moves as explained by “A Political Kenya 2012”:

Eugene Wamalwa – Minister for Justice, National Cohesion and Constitutional Affairs
– Biggest winner as the docket will promote him to the senior most politician in Western province and probably check Musalia Mudavadi’s rising star
– He is an Ocampo 4 sympathiser
– Was once linked to president Kibaki’s son (Jimmy Kibaki) 2012 campaign as his prefered presidential candidate.
– Also seen as a compromise candidate for the G7 alliance
Mutula Kilonzo – Minister of Education
– Demotion from Minister for Justice Minister for Justice, National Cohesion and Constitutional Affairs despite having delivered a new constitution which many previous justice ministers failed to do
– Punished for being an ardent Ocampo 4 Critic and for not toeing the ODM Kenya line

Also, Moses Wetangala has been demoted from Foreign Affairs to Trade (just after finally getting out of Bamako following the Malian coup).  This would seem to tie in to advancing Eugene Wamalwa as Luhya political leader in Western Province to the detriment of Deputy PM and announced ODM candidate Musalia Mudavidi.  On the ODM side, Najib Balala is the only Minister completely sacked, losing Tourism.  The Coast figure has been at odds with Raila Odinga for much of Kibaki’s second term in and openly expressed “seller’s remorse” for supporting Raila irrespective of his status as a member of the “Pentagon” from the 2007 campaign.

And no change in status for Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta as he continues to fight the prospect of facing ICC trial and to rally ethnic support in Central Province.

The political establishment in Kenya will not be easily moved in the 2012 elections, now most likely ending up to be in 2013 through a complicated series of legal wickets for which no one has claimed responsibility and for which there is no obvious popular support.  I hope it is finally dawning of any doubters that the Government of Kenya as an institution is quite mobilized on balance to try to stop the ICC, as it has been–and not in favor of any substitute local justice mechanism.

The political stakes continue to rise and the prospect of oil money on the near term horizon if anything raises them more.  If nothing else, there will be a lot of pressure to do oil deals for campaign funding.

Tariff Tussles–those bales of used clothes and the Kenyan economy

Sometimes an unheralded item in Nairobi’s business press tells a larger story of policy, politics and economics in Kenya.  Until the 1990s import of used clothing was banned in Kenya.  With liberalization, it was allowed, along with other cloth imports.  Domestic manufacturing has been hurt, thus the Kenya Associations of Manufacturers supports a new tariff increase, but a whole sub-economy itself has grown up around the import and subsequent distribution of the bundles of used clothing:

“Dealers in used clothes brace for hard times as taxman raises duty”

Which way dealers in second-hand clothes? This is the question thousands of traders in used clothes are grappling with as the increased cost of doing business hits home.

After doing booming business for many years, the sector now faces some of its worst challenge which threaten its survival.
The traders should brace for hard times following a decision by the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) to raise import duty on used clothes.

The taxman has nearly doubled the duty to Sh2.1 million per container from the previous Sh1.3 million.

The new charges have pushed the cost of each bale to about Sh22,000.
Continued delays at Mombasa port have not helped the situation either as shippers are set to raise charges to factor in extra costs incurred over the clogging.

The shippers want to increase charges on each container by at least Sh70,000, bringing the total cost to Sh495,000.

The trend will force importers to increase the price of clothes to factor in the new charges.

Such a move is likely to be risky for businesses, especially coming at a time when consumers are battling eroded disposable incomes.
Inflation, which is hovering near 20 per cent on the back of high food and fuel prices, has left consumers with little to spend on goods outside essentials such as food.

This means that any rise in prices of clothes could turn off potential buyers, denying traders much needed income. “Already, the number of buyers has decreased over the past six months,” said Solomon Kagwe who sells clothes at Sunbeam, one of the most popular outlets for second-hand clothes in Nairobi’s Central Business District.

.  .  .  .

The trade has led to the setting up of huge markets in the country’s big towns that deal exclusively with used clothes, such as Nairobi’s Gikomba.

Retailers source second-hand clothes from such markets and sell them through stalls and shops across the country. Government statistics show that the second-hand clothes business employs more than 200,000 people countrywide and generates billions of shillings annually for the economy.

“The new tax is going to kill the entire industry.

The way out is to renegotiate with KRA and shippers to bring down the costs,” said Abdi Mohammed who sells second hand clothes at a stall along Moi Avenue in Nairobi. “The government can’t just watch as a whole industry is wiped out,” said Mr Mohammed.

The second-hand clothes sub-sector has not gone down well with investors in the textile industry.

Relocation of factories

The investors together with cotton farmers blame the used clothes sector for leading to closure and relocation of factories leading to job losses over the years.

“Efforts must be put in place to ensure that all second-hand clothes and new garments coming into the country are properly levied in order to reduce unfair competition,” said Kenya Association of Manufacturers CEO Betty Maina.

She said that 41 textile making firms had closed shop in the last three years partly due to an influx of cheap second-hand clothes.

 

Friday the 13th Ruling: No Kenyan Election Until 2013 Unless Gov’t Dissolved First says High Court

Here is the story from KBC:

A three  judge bench Friday ruled that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) sets the date for the general election.

In a one hour ruling by constitutional court judges Isaac lenaola, David Majanja and Mumbi Ngugi, IEBC should set the election date 60 days after the expiry of the current parliament which is January 15,2013.

Going by the ruling, the general election is likely to be held in 2013. The judges who took time to read through the appeals by different petitioners said it was prudent for the IEBC to determine the date since it is the one bestowed with the mandate to conduct elections.

They ruled that the General Election can only be held in 2012 if President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga agree, in writing, to dissolve the Grand Coalition Government. This would be 60 days after the Principals agree to terminate the National Accord that holds the coalition parties, PNU and ODM, together.

Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta says his KANU party will respect the court’s verdict.

Narck Kenya leader Martha Karua posted her immediate reaction on twitter saying she totally disagree’s with the court’s ruling.

She argues that the term of office must include the election period and that’s the interpretation world over.

“I totally disagree with the court’s ruling. Term of office must include the election period and that’s the interpretation world over.”

.  .  .  .

Sloppy or deliberately ambiguous work on the new Constitution strikes again.  The big picture here is that the Kenyan voters end up having foisted on them a “grand coalition” of all the major players from the last election until an election that is LATER rather than SOONER in the wake of the failure of the 2007 election.  Hopefully civil society, democracy activists and donors will use the extra time productively to push the political class further forward on the reforms required to implement the new Constitution and prepare for a better election.  No reason to be optimistic that extra time will help, but we can always hope>

Preparations for Kenyan Election Kick-Off With Start of Multi-Step Process to Set Constituencies and Boundaries

 

From Wambui Ndonga on Capital FM:

NAIROBI, Kenya, Jan 9 – Kenyans have the next 21 days to submit their views on a preliminary report proposing the review of electoral boundaries that was launched on

Monday by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

The commission said it would conduct public hearings in all the 47 counties to get Kenyans’ views on the boundaries for constituencies and wards.

IEBC Chairman Issack Hassan said his team would also accept emails and written submissions hand delivered to the Constituency Election Coordination Office.

The schedules for the public hearings will be released on Tuesday.

“We are going to have eight teams going round the country to collect views from the public on what they think. The teams will go round the country for 21 days to hear out Kenyans,” he said.

However concerns have already started mounting over the report, which is almost a replica of the report prepared by the now defunct Interim Independent Boundaries Review Commission (IIBRC), led by Andrew Ligale.

Hassan explained that the IEBC had to use the IIBRC report as their primary reference point as required by the Constitution and didn’t have much choice. The IEBC also used the parliamentary report on the Ligale document as its second reference point.

He further asked Kenyans to exercise decorum and remain objective as they familiarised themselves with the contents of the report so as to ensure that the country attained the gains of devolution.

“Allow me to make a humble plea to all Kenyans, particularly to politicians; let us exercise restraint. The commission recognises the sensitivity of some of the issues at hand and we reiterate our devotion to diligently uphold the law,” he assured.

After the 21-day period for public participation, the commission will take 14 days to look into any concerns raised before considering them in the final report. The report will then be forwarded to the parliamentary committee on Justice and Legal Affairs, which will again take another 14 days to scrutinise it before presenting it in Parliament.

Members of Parliament will then have seven days to debate the report and adopt it with or without amendments after which it will be returned to the IEBC for an extra 14 days before it is gazetted and published.

“Kenyans will then get 30 days to raise their objections at the High Court which will take 30 days to resolve. Only then can the IEBC proceed to map out the new electoral units for purposes of voter registration and other electoral processes,” he explained.

Although the IEBC Act states that the High Court should determine any such issues within 30 days, the Constitution states that such an application shall be heard and determined within three months from the date it was filed.

. . . .

This should be interesting. If everything goes exceedingly well, Kenyans will be within a few months ready to register to vote in new constituencies for the next election.

A key variable to watch for in the process will be transparency and how serious “the donors” supporting the process are about making sure that Kenyans ultimately know how and why they end up with the constituencies they end up with.

THE Book on Recent Kenyan Politics to Read in 2011

The Politics of Betrayal; Diary of a Kenyan Legislator by former journalist and MP Joe Khamisi was published early this year and made a big stir in Nairobi with portions being serialized in The Nation.  Khamisi is definitely not your average politician in that he got a journalism degree from the University of Maryland, worked for years as a journalist, and became managing director of the Kenya Broadcasting Corporation and worked in the foreign service before being elected to parliament from Bahari on the Coast in 2002.

Khamisi was part of the LDP, the Liberal Democratic Party, and in 2007 became an ODM-K insider with Kalonzo.  While there is inherent subjectivity in a political memoir from one particular actor, Khamisi’s background in journalism serves him well.  While I cannot vouch for his accounts of specific incidents that I do not have any direct knowledge of, and I do not necessarily agree with his perspective on some things and people, he seems to try to be fair and there is much that he writes that rings true to me from my own interactions and observations in the 2007 campaign.

From his chapter on “The Final Moments” of the 2007 race, at page 223:

It needs to be said at this point that Kalonzo’s appointment as Vice President was neither an afterthought by Kibaki, nor a patriotic move by Kalonzo to save the country from chaos.  It was not a miracle either.  It was a deliberate, calculated, and planned affair meant to stop the ODM from winning the presidency.  It was conceived, discussed and sealed more than two months before the elections.  It was purely a strategic political move; a sort of pre-election pact between two major political players.  It was s survival technique meant to save Kibaki and Kalonzo from possible humiliation.

In our secret discussions with Kibaki, we did not go beyond the issue of the Vice Presidency and the need for an alliance between ODM-Kenya and PNU.  We, for example, did not discuss the elections themselves; the mechanisms to be used to stop Raila; nor did we discuss whether part of that mechanism was to be the manipulation of the elections.  It appeared though that PNU insiders had a far wider plan, and the plan, whatever it was, was executed with the full connivance of the ECK .  What happened at the KICC tallying centre–even without thinking about who won or lost–lack transparency and appeared to be a serious case of collusion involving the ECK and officials at the highest levels of government.  It was not a coincidence that the lights went off at the very crucial moment when the results were about to be announced; nor was it necessary for the para-military units to intervene in what was purely an administrative matter.  The entire performance of ECK Chairman Kivuitu and some of the Commissioners was also suspect and without doubt contributed to the violence that followed.

Lessons from 2007 and New FOIA Cables–Part Two

Continued . . .

So on Saturday afternoon, December 15, 2007, I drove to the embassy residence in Muthaiga and was served tea by a woman from the house staff while waiting a few moments for the Ambassador.  I had understood from IRI’s president that Ranneberger was going to talk to me and my general impression or assumption was that he wanted to smooth things over after twisting my arm so hard toward getting Ambassador Bellamy, his predecessor, off the IRI Election Observation delegation.

As it turned out, the purpose of the meeting was more substantive.  I am not writing to “dish” on a private conversation and I won’t recount everything in general here, but this did involve public business of the U.S. as well as the Kenyan election, regardless of the fact that it took place without witnesses or records on a Saturday afternoon.  All circumstances considered I think I ought to explain a couple of salient points from this meeting that remain to me significant in trying to learn what happened with the election twelve days later.

To start, Ranneberger elaborated on the importance of removing Bellamy from the delegation because of the notion that he was perceived as “anti-government,” obviously meaning the Kibaki administration.  As mentioned in the New York Times story, what was new in this conversation is that he seemed to be saying that the objection had come from someone in the Kenyan government, although that was not completely explicit.  When Ranneberger had originally raised this objection to Bellamy earlier in the month, I had asked for input from our Kenyan program staff who indicated that they did not think that this was Bellamy’s general reputation in Kenya and IRI staff had checked this with State Department contacts in Washington and found no support for that view there either.

The Ambassador definitely did not apologize for giving me “the treatment”, but he was smoothly back to his usual more pleasant/diplomatic self and I certainly did not take the matter personally–I was just the guy on the ground who provided an available pressure point.

Ranneberger did let me know that he knew what Bellamy had been told as to why he had been dropped from the delegation.  In other words, he was letting me know, without taking responsibility for the situation himself, that he knew that “we” at IRI had lied to Bellamy.  This may not have put us in the best position to hold the “no more b.s.” line with Ranneberger going forward.   He didn’t say how he knew about the “story line” to Bellamy and I have no idea myself.  IRI was in a difficult situation not of our making on the Bellamy situation–would we cancel the Election Observation (as the only international NGO scheduled to observe, and raise lots of questions we couldn’t very well answer) or let the Ambassador interfere with the delegation? Regardless, once the directive from the top was given to lie to Bellamy about why he was off the list, IRI no longer had completely clean hands.

There are a variety of things from the more substantive part of the discussion that leave open questions in my mind now after what ultimately happened with the ECK and the election.  One in particular that stands out now in light of the FOIA disclosure.

The Ambassador told me that Saturday that “people are saying” that Raila Odinga, as the leading opposition candidate for president, ahead in the polls as the vote was nearing, might lose his own Langata parliamentary constituency (which under the existing system would disqualify him from becoming president even if he got the most votes nationally).  This was “out of the blue” for me because I certainly was not aware of anyone who thought that.  Odinga’s PNU opponent Stanley Livando had made a big splash and spent substantial money when he first announced, but he had not seemed to get obvious traction in the race.  Naturally, I wondered who the “people” Ranneberger was referring to were.  Ranneberger said that a Raila loss in Langata would be “explosive” and that he wanted to take Ms. Newman with him to observe voting there on election day.

Ranneberger also went on to say that he wanted to take Ms. Newman separately to meet with Kibaki’s State House advisor Stanley Murage on the day before the election with no explanation offered as to why.

After midnight Nairobi time I had a telephone call with the Africa director and the vice presidents in charge at IRI in Washington in the president’s absence.  I was given the option to “pull the plug” on the observation mission based on the concerns about Ranneberger’s approach following my meeting with him.   The Ambassador, rather than either IRI or USAID, had initiated the observation mission in the first place, and IRI was heavily occupied with other observations.  Nonetheless, based on assurances that Ms. Newman would be fully briefed on our agreement that she needed to steer clear of separate interaction with the Ambassador and that the Murage meeting must not happen, and my belief that it would be an “incident” in its own right to cancel the observation, we agreed to go forward with precautions.

I got the idea of commissioning a separate last-minute poll of the Langata parliamentary race.  I thought that the notion that Livondo might beat Raila in Langata seemed far fetched, but objective data from before the vote could prove important.  We hired the Steadman polling firm for this job, to spread the work.  Also Strategic was already heavily occupied with preparing for the exit poll, and  Steadman was the firm that Ranneberger had instructed his staff to call (too late as it happened) to quash the release of poll results that he knew  would show Raila leading back in October, so I thought that it was that much more likely that word would get back. Further, in the partisan sniping which I generally did not credit, Steadman was claimed by some in opposition to be more aligned with Kibaki so would be extra-credible to verify this race.  I also made sure that we scheduled an “oversample” for Langata for the national exit poll so that we would have a statistically valid measure of the actual election day results in the parliamentary race.

On to the new FOIA release:  On Tuesday, December 18, Ranneberger sent another cable to the Secretary of State entitled “Kenya Elections:  State of Play on Election”.  This cable says nothing about the “explosive” Langata parliamentary race issue that Ranneberger had raised with me on Saturday, three days earlier.  It concludes:  “Given the closeness of the election contest, the perceived legitimacy of the election outcome could determine whether the losing side accepts the results with minimal disturbances.  Our staff’s commendable response to the call for volunteers over the Christmas holiday allows us to deploy teams to all sections of the country, providing a representative view of the vote as a whole.  In addition, our decision to host the joint observation control room will provide much greater access to real-time information; allowing a more comprehensive analysis of the election process.”

Next, we have a cable from Christmas Eve, December 24, three days before the election.  The first thing that morning the IRI observation delegates were briefed on the election by a key Ranneberger aide.  I told him then that we had commissioned the separate Langata poll.  He said that the Ambassador would be very interested, and I agreed to bring results with me to the embassy residence that evening when the Ambassador hosted a reception for the delegation.  The results showed Odinga winning by more than two-to-one.

There are a number of noteworthy items that I will discuss later from this cable, but for today, let me note that  Ranneberger has added in this cable a discussion of the Langata race:

“11.  We have credible reports that some within the Kibaki camp could be trying to orchestrate a defeat of Odinga in his constituency of Langata, which includes the huge slum of Kibera.  This could involve some combination of causing disorder in order to disenfranchise some of his supporters and/or bringing in double-registered Kikuyu supporters of the PNU’s candidate from outside.  To be elected President a candidate must fulfill three conditions:  have a plurality of the popular vote; have at least 25 percent in 5 of the 8 provinces; and be an elected member of Parliament.  Thus, defeat of Odinga in his constituency is a tempting silver bullet.  The Ambassador, as well as the UK and German Ambassadors, will observe in the Langata constituency.  If Odinga were to lose Langata, Kibaki would become President if he has the next highest vote total and 25 percent in 5 provinces (both candidates will likely meet the 25 percent rule).

12.  The outside chance that widespread fraud in the election process could force us to call into question the result would be enormously damaging to U.S. interests.  We hold Kenya up as a democratic model not only for the continent, but for the developing world, and we have a vast partnership with this country on key issues ranging from efforts against HIV/AIDS, to collaboration on Somalia and Sudan, to priority anti-terrorism activities.

.  .  .

14.  As long as the electoral process is credible, the U.S.-Kenyan partnership will continue to grow and serve mutual interests regardless of who is elected.   While Kibaki has a proven track record with us, Odinga is also a friend of the U.S. . . .

15.  It is likely that the winner will schedule a quick inauguration (consistent with past practice) to bless the result and, potentially, to forestall any serious challenge to the results.  There is no credible mechanism to challenge the results, hence likely recourse to the streets if the result is questionable.  The courts are both inefficient and corrupt.  Pronouncements by the Chairman of the Electoral Commission and observers, particularly from the U.S., will therefore have be [sic] crucial in helping shape the judgment of the Kenyan people.  With an 87% approval rating in Kenya, our statements are closely watched and respected.  I feel that we are well -prepared to meet this large responsibility and, in the process, to advance U.S. interests.”  END

None of this material was mentioned in the briefing to the observation delegation or to me that day.  Long after the election, the Standard newspaper reported that the original plan of the Kibaki camp had been to rig the Langata parliamentary race, but at the last minute a switch was made to change the votes at the central tally, supposedly on the basis of the strength of early returns for Odinga in Western and Rift Valley provinces.

To be continued .  .  .  .

Catching Up on Kenyan Politics–Three Related Big Developments on Reform

The past three months or so have been especially busy for me and I have to apologize for having to let go of my past practice of at least noting most of the major headlines in Kenyan politics on a current basis.  Likewise, what I have posted has been more heavily weighted toward quotes and citations to other sources and less original.

First, the big issue that I have largely taken a pass on has been the nomination and appointment of the new Supreme Court, especially the Chief Justice.  I will say that the new Chief Justice Willy Mutunga got off to a good start yesterday, in my book, by forsaking the traditional robe and wig for his swearing in.  My more egalitarian American sensitivities have always been turned off by the white wigs–we rebelled against the British and got rid of all that a long time ago.  I can appreciate decorum and a sense of dignity for the court, but I’m not sure that the white wig is even really dignified as opposed to just silly.  And in a country with as much of a problem with dramatic inequality both economically and in the legal and judicial system, it seems to me that a bit of humility is a positive thing.

More importantly it is encouraging to see the hope engendered by Mutunga’s appointment.  Mutunga has a combination of serious bona fides as a reformer through leadership in the “Second Liberation” and serious legal credentials.  Here is a column from retired Presbyterian minister Dr. Timothy Njoya that I found to be particularly persuasive in this regard.  He is obviously qualified in training and intellect, but was also seems chosen by the Judicial Service Commission in substantial part to be a leader of reforming the judiciary through his position as Chief Justice.  My interest is the process, and I don’t think it is my place as an American to have a strong opinion about who should or shouldn’t be appointed to a judicial position in Kenya, but it is gratifying to see Kenyan civil society leaders and others whom I like and admire for their courage in the context of the late Kenyan election crisis feel that Mutunga’s appointment is a step toward reform and the rule of law.

In considering the process, I will way that the JSC was a bit harsh on some applicants and I hope that in the future this will be improved on.  Here is a column in the Star saluting one of the applicants whom I had the opportunity to meet socially and found to be a very considerate person who ended up being charactured a bit in the media as a result of her interview.  A woman who has served long on the Kenyan High Court without hint of scandal deserves respect as a pioneer and the JSC certainly could have chosen reasonably to go in the direction of seeking someone with experience on the bench.

On the other hand, the appointment of the Director of Public Prosecution is quite a different matter.  Keriako Tobiko was nominated and approved in spite of very serious and specific allegations of corruption.  It is very hard to understand why this appointment makes any sense unless it is intended to protect key people from public prosecution–I wish this was a far fetched notion.  In fact, the situation seems blatant enough to almost make one wonder whether there was an “understanding”–a reformist chief justice for an insider as prosecutor to make sure that the weight of the law does not fall on the current powers that be?

A third big event that I have not discussed is the effort by the U.K. to gain extradition of Chrysanthus Okemo and Samuel Gicheru for prosecution for prosecution in Jersey.  Okemo, a member of parliament and former finance minister, and Gichuru, a former managing director of Kenya’s power supply monopoly the Kenya Power & Lighting Co. Ltd., are wanted in Jersey on corruption charges.  The allegations are that Gicheru took bribes from KPLC contractors and laundered the money to accounts in Jersey.  Payments are also alleged to have gone to Okemo as Finance Minister and as well when he was Energy Minister.

Frankly the British just have not had the best history on fighting graft involving the developing world and this initiative seems to me to be a breakthrough, consistent with the spirit of the new U.K. anti-bribery act.   I firmly believe that the ability of the “well connected” to stash ill gotten gains abroad with impunity has been a key factor in keeping most Kenyans economically marginalized and keeping the Government of Kenyan underperforming.  If the U.K is successful in this prosecution it could be a turning point toward a better pattern of development in Kenya in which the benefits of economic growth reach more citizens.

Ironically, however, Director of Public Prosecutions Tobiko is in a key role in evaluating the extradition request:

The government has ordered the formation of a high-level panel to consider a request for the extradition of former power utility boss Samuel Gichuru and Nambale MP Chris Okemo over fraud charges.

Attorney-General Amos Wako said he had received a full extradition request comprising 13 bundles of supporting documentation from Jersey Island.

As a result, Mr Wako said, he had instructed the chief public prosecutor to constitute the panel.

“Due to the complexity, magnitude and voluminous nature of the request, I have directed the chief public prosecutor, Mr Keriako Tobiko, to immediately constitute a high level team to study and analyse the supporting documentation and deal with the matter soonest,” Mr Wako said in a statement.

Sources said Mr Tobiko had constituted the team.

“Panel to decide fate of Okemo, Gicheru”, Daily Nation, 10 June 2011.

Wycliffe Muga: Tobiko Is Not Fit To Hold DPP Position

I was surprised to learn, quite recently, that Uganda has a Ministry of Ethics and Integrity. It reminded me of a Tanzania-based expatriate I once met who assured me that her work was in advising a Tanzanian Ministry with an equally improbable name: the ‘Ministry of Beekeeping’ (I have since learned, incidentally, that this may have been a private joke of hers, as what Tanzania actually has is a Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism, within which there is a ‘Forestry and Beekeeping Division’.)

All the same, I have to wonder what that Ugandan ministry, concerned as it is with ‘ethics and integrity’ would have made of the appointment of Keriako Tobiko as the Director of Public Prosecutions – something which seems imminent at the time of writing.

The question is, After all that we have heard, can we really believe that this is a man of sound ethics and undoubted integrity? Were the accusations made by Prof Yash Pal Ghai, merely a figment of the good professor’s imagination, or is it actually true that Tobiko considered the entire constitution-making process as little more than a ladder that he could use to get access to the top political circles, and thus ascend to high office?

At other times, these accusations may not have mattered all that much. In the first place, Kenyans were previously accustomed to a childlike obedience to the dictates of the imperial presidency. In the second place, doing the dirty work for those higher up than you – or even just having the unmistakable capacity for doing so – was a recognized path to advancement in both the Moi era, and the early years of the Kibaki presidency. But times have changed, and there is – I think – a critical mass of Kenyans who are determined that we should no longer live in a country where those in power more or less do as they please, and the rest of us just have to put up with it.

In the circumstances, accepting the appointment as DPP will most likely prove to be not so much a victor’s laurel on Tobiko’s head, as a crown of thorns. As long as he holds this office, every step he takes will judged against his seemingly irregular appointment, and unflattering assumptions will be made as to his motives for every serious decision he takes.

And there is no question that this is an irregular appointment. Nobody can say at this point whether he is guilty or innocent of all or any of these accusations. But it is clear enough that they bear looking into.

.  .  .  .

via Tobiko Is Not Fit To Hold DPP Position–The Star (Nairobi).

U.S. Rachets Up Pressure on Kenyan “Drug Kingpins”

The White House released its designation of seven individuals, including two Kenyans, to Congress as appropriate for sanctions as “foreign drug kingpins”, including Kilome MP John Harun Mwau (Sultan Hamud, Eastern Province–on the way from Mombasa to Nairobi) and another Kenyan. This follows the delivery to Attorney General Wako earlier this year of a dossier supporting these charges.  So far, Kenyan authorities have indicated that they find no evidence on which to take legal action.

The White House

Office of the Press Secretary

For Immediate Release
June 01, 2011

Letter from the President on the Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation Act

June 1, 2011

Dear Mr. Chairman:  (Dear Madam Chairman:)
(Dear Representative:) (Dear Senator:)

This report to the Congress, under section 804(a) of the Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation Act, 21 U.S.C. 1901-1908 (the “Kingpin Act”), transmits my designations of the following seven foreign individuals as appropriate for sanctions under the Kingpin Act and reports my direction of sanctions against them under the Act:

Manuel Torres Felix (Mexico)
Gonzalo Inzunza Inzunza (Mexico)
Haji Lal Jan Ishaqzai (Afghanistan)
Kamchybek Asanbekovich Kolbayev (Kyrgyzstan)
John Harun Mwau (Kenya)
Naima Mohamed Nyakiniywa (Kenya)
Javier Antonio Calle Serna (Colombia)

Sincerely,

BARACK OBAMA

Here is a link to “Narcotics:  What You Need to Know About U.S. Sanctions Against Drug Traffickers; an overview of the Foreign Narcotics Kingpins Designation Act . . .” published by the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control:

The Kingpin Act blocks all property and interests in property,
subject to U.S. jurisdiction, owned or controlled by significant
foreign narcotics traffickers as identified by the President.  In
addition, the Kingpin Act blocks the property and interests in
property, subject to U.S. jurisdiction, of foreign persons
designated by the Secretary of Treasury, in consultation with the
Attorney General, the Director of Central Intelligence, the
Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the
Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration, the
Secretary of Defense, and the Secretary of State, who are found to
be: (1) materially assisting in, or providing financial or
technological support for or to, or providing goods or services in
support of, the international narcotics trafficking activities of
a person designated pursuant to the Kingpin Act;  (2) owned,
controlled, or directed by, or acting for or on behalf of, a person
designated pursuant to the Kingpin Act; or  (3)  playing a
significant role in international narcotics trafficking.

Mwau filed suit against outgoing U.S. Ambassador Ranneberger in the Kenyan High Court in April in response allegations raised against him by the U.S. late last year:

Mwau says the diplomat has made false allegations of drug trafficking, contract killings and money laundering to the police. The diplomat on December 7, 2010, filed a criminal complaint with the Minister for Internal Security Prof George Saitoti and had the same complaint delivered to the Police Commissioner.

Mwau states that he has never been involved and has never contemplated or even dreamed of being involved in trafficking narcotic drugs and does not know any person who sells, buys or consumes narcotics of any nature.

He says he was shocked when his name was announced by Prof Saitoti in Parliament on December 22, 2010, as one of the people named in Ranneberger’s dossier. Mwau says the dossier had contents meant and calculated to injure his dignity and reputation.

The contents of the dossier, he adds, alleged that he has been linked to contract killings against law enforcement officials and that he is linked to a tonne of cocaine consignment seized by Kenya Police in 2004. Ranneberger also alleged he (Mwau) was a close family member of Akasha family in Mombasa.

Khalwale Re-takes His Seat in Ikolomani–Tribal and Presidential Implications?

“The Bull Fighter Dr. Bonny Khalwale gored his way to parliament after emerging victorious in the completed Ikolomani parliamentary by-election with provisional results indicating to have won by 13208 votes against his rival Benard Shinali 10702 and 293 votes for Kizito . . .” reports West FM.

Here is a Friday, May 30 editorial from West FM ahead of Monday’s vote, articulating a view of Luhya tribal interests in the by-election–well worth a read to appreciate a major strain of thought in Kenyan politics, even after the 2007-08 tragedy:

“The Ikolomani bye-election to determine whether the Luhya community has the self belief and courage to go for the presidency of Kenya in 2012

The new Constitution secures the right of all Constituencies in Kenya to receive equitable development regardless of which party the Constituency votes for.  The template of dangling development projects using tax payers’ resources as a bait for the electorate to vote for a party is unconstitutional and plain corruption and impunity.

The Ikolomani Constituency Bye-election to be held on 23/05/2011 is not about which of those competing candidates will or will not bring development to the Constituency.   Which development can whoever is elected deliver in the remaining twelve months before the next General Elections slated under the new Constitution for August 2012?  The Ikolomani Constituency Bye-election is being quietly watched for what its results will portend and give bearing as to how the 2012 Kibaki succession shapes up in the coming months.

.  .  .  .

A vote for the ODM Candidate will be a clear statement that Western Kenya is not interested in and has no confidence in itself to be a contender for the 2012 Presidential Race.  That will be as clear as daylight granted the ODM Presidential baton  for 2012 is irretrievably in the “safe” and hands of Hon. Raila Odinga and let nobody fool you that he will surrender it to anybody come rain come sunshine unless Hon. Raila leaves that party.

Yes the ODM vote will be the loudest confession by Western Kenya through the people of Ikolomani as a microcosm that the Luhya Community is happy and contended to play second, third or fourth fiddle going into the 2012 Presidential Race.

A vote for New Ford Kenya in the By-elections on the other hand will be the loudest statement that Western Kenya and the Luhya Community is in the race for the Presidency of Kenya in 2012 regardless of who will be its eventual flag bearer whether it be Hon. Musalia Mudavadi or Hon. Eugene Wamalwa.  A vote for New Ford Kenya will be the voice of the people of Western Kenya to their present crop of leaders that they must put their act together and present Western Kenya’s and the Luhya Community’s bid for the Presidency in 2012 just as the Kalenjin Community has Hon. William Ruto as representing their Presidential ambition and the Kikuyu Community has Hon. Martha Karua and Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta, the Kamba Community have Hon. Kalonzo Musyoka and the Luo Community has Hon. Raila Odinga.

The question at the moment is not whether or not Western Kenya’s Presidential contender will win or not in 2012 but that for Western Kenya to ever hope for the Presidency or anything else it must first be in the race or in the competition and put in an application for the job through a candidate.  And the people of Ikolomani Constituency know the name of the game through their colorful sport of bull fighting and where one cannot win a bull fight unless of course one has his bull in the contest, in the Arena, in Malinya Stadium.

The Ford People Candidate in the Ikolomani Constituency Bye-election is the only candidate whose candidature does not spill into the permutations of the 2012 Presidential Elections of Kenya and may be that one can say he should be judged without the blinkers of the 2012 Presidential race and therefore whether or not he has the ability to discharge the function of an MP.

Yes, all watchers of how the Presidential Race, jigsaw for 2012 will pan out are watching how Western Kenya’s dress rehearsal (through the Bye-election) of what role it will play, whether it will be a player or part of the cheering crowd, what political weight, value, price to assign Western Kenya in the political alliances, coalitions that will shape the 2012 Presidential Race.

The people of Ikolomani Constituency will on 23/05/2011 die the cast for Western Kenya and the Luhya Community as to whether the region has the ambition , gravitas and whether it will have its own veritable bull in Kenya’s 2012 Presidential Race or not.  In 1995 when Ikolomani Constituency held a similarly charged bye-election that Benjamin Magwaga won, it had the choice of the late Michael Wamalwa Kijana representing the Luhya Community’s urge for the Presidency on one side and President Moi on the other and the Ikolomani people chose President Moi. . . .

See the updated Wikipedia entry for quick analysis, and see Opalo’s Blog for the thoughts of a diaspora political science graduate student at Stanford.