“John Githongo: Former Anti-Corruption Czar on a mission to change Kenyan leadership” from November 2012 Think Business at “Kenyan Magazines”:
Based on Inuka Kenya’s mapping using information provided by credible Kenyan organisations and partners, more than 480 people have been killed since January 2012 in this violence. “It is pre-election violence associated with the new boundaries and the struggle for power. It is so insidious that it is almost passing unnoticed,” says John.
The new constitution, he adds, poses a lot of challenges for the transition process in terms of implementation. We have created new boundaries, instituted a system of devolved government and initiated new laws. Even the more developed economies have not attempted to implement the number of changes we are attempting to implement at the moment at one go. “We are a very versatile people but we will be tested in a way that is unprecedented.” He worries that the danger of things falling apart is that the disillusionment that might follow will cause Kenya to implode, not to explode, “Like an ice cream melting in the sun.”
“The biggest challenge the IEBC faces” by Wycliffe Muga in The Star.
It has been many months since i last shared a comment. Have enjoyed your running commentary on all things East Africa.
My few contacts in Kenya, mostly in the West, are increasingly nervous about the upcoming elections. I suspect the recent political alliances will not calm them down. So it looks like Jubilee (Luo/Kamba) vs. CORD a/k/a the Hague ticket(Kikuyu/Kalenjin) with Mudavadi (Luhya) the odd man out. Seems they are just setting up once again on ethnic lines. I see nothing to be optimistic about at the moment.
I suppose we should hope for the best.
Thanks– very glad to hear you are still enjoying the blog.
Agree that we should all be nervous and people who have the opportunity to be involved should focus on preparing for contingencies. FOIA docs show that last time, the State Dept recognized the real chance of ECK failure by September 07 and was to draw up a contingency plan to be prepared, but it doesn’t seem to have surfaced. No need for any complacency this time.
Want to make sure to note that Jubilee is the Kenyatta/Ruto (ICC) ticket and CORD is Odinga/Musyoka, rather than the other way around. Yes, another high stakes scrap between two groups that will invoke a lot of competing ethnic claims, backroom deals and lots of scrambling by local candidates to pick the winning side at the last possible moment. And Western looks like a key “swing” area for both sides.
It does seem like Kenya has much going right if it can avoid derailing over politics.
Have a great New Year, Dan.
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