Kenya: Today’s Presidential Announcement of Tullow Oil Drilling Find in Turkana (several weeks ago) Coincides with News of Major Cabinet Shakeup

“Kenya Strikes Oil in Turkana”, Capital FM

NAIROBI, Kenya, Mar 26 – After years of prospecting, Kenya has finally made a breakthrough by striking oil in Turkana County in the north, with focus now shifting to exploring its commercial viability.

The discovery of the light, waxy oil was made in a half-way drilled Ngamia-1 exploration well, raising expectations that there could be huge reserves once the total depth of 2,700 metres is reached.

“The well has been drilled to an initial depth of 1,041 metres and it will continue to a total depth of about 2,700 metres to explore for deeper potential in this prospect,” Energy Minister Kiraitu Murungi said at a press briefing.

President Mwai Kibaki was the first to break the news earlier in the day. . . . .

The Nation’s “Big Story” is on the Cabinet.

The reshuffle seems hugely consequential in Kenya’s election year politics:  it certainly appears that Kibaki has made a large gesture toward realigning the Cabinet toward the “G7 Alliance” which has lingered as both the primary political vehicle to advocate for Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto against the ICC and most visible successor to much of the PNU apparatus from 2007-08.

The most prominent moves as explained by “A Political Kenya 2012”:

Eugene Wamalwa – Minister for Justice, National Cohesion and Constitutional Affairs
– Biggest winner as the docket will promote him to the senior most politician in Western province and probably check Musalia Mudavadi’s rising star
– He is an Ocampo 4 sympathiser
– Was once linked to president Kibaki’s son (Jimmy Kibaki) 2012 campaign as his prefered presidential candidate.
– Also seen as a compromise candidate for the G7 alliance
Mutula Kilonzo – Minister of Education
– Demotion from Minister for Justice Minister for Justice, National Cohesion and Constitutional Affairs despite having delivered a new constitution which many previous justice ministers failed to do
– Punished for being an ardent Ocampo 4 Critic and for not toeing the ODM Kenya line

Also, Moses Wetangala has been demoted from Foreign Affairs to Trade (just after finally getting out of Bamako following the Malian coup).  This would seem to tie in to advancing Eugene Wamalwa as Luhya political leader in Western Province to the detriment of Deputy PM and announced ODM candidate Musalia Mudavidi.  On the ODM side, Najib Balala is the only Minister completely sacked, losing Tourism.  The Coast figure has been at odds with Raila Odinga for much of Kibaki’s second term in and openly expressed “seller’s remorse” for supporting Raila irrespective of his status as a member of the “Pentagon” from the 2007 campaign.

And no change in status for Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta as he continues to fight the prospect of facing ICC trial and to rally ethnic support in Central Province.

The political establishment in Kenya will not be easily moved in the 2012 elections, now most likely ending up to be in 2013 through a complicated series of legal wickets for which no one has claimed responsibility and for which there is no obvious popular support.  I hope it is finally dawning of any doubters that the Government of Kenya as an institution is quite mobilized on balance to try to stop the ICC, as it has been–and not in favor of any substitute local justice mechanism.

The political stakes continue to rise and the prospect of oil money on the near term horizon if anything raises them more.  If nothing else, there will be a lot of pressure to do oil deals for campaign funding.

“KONY2012”: Bigger than “Out of Africa”, and probably better

More than a week ago I promised my daughter a post about KONY2012.  Seeing as how I changed her life by moving her to Kenya for the seventh grade four years ago I allowed that this was a reasonable request, and agreed to do my best (even though I was inclined to not to write on the subject otherwise).

In the meantime, I agreed to lead a Sunday School discussion about the video for this morning, so I had to work through how to address the complexity of issues in a very brief overview for a general audience of my contemporaries who are not “East Africa junkies” who would read this blog, but who came to the issue initially primarily as parents of children impacted by an unusual and interesting cultural phenomenon in the form of this video that “went viral” in an unprecedented way.

From a Sunday School perspective, we talked briefly after watching the video about our responsibilities to be aware of things going on with “our neighbors” in the world and finding effective ways to respond. We were struck by the notion that our children were being reached and moved, and in some cases perhaps manipulated in different ways with Facebook and YouTube, etc. as opposed to what we grew up with. We touched on the issues about lobbying for a specific military response to a unique situation involving several countries. And we certainly recognized and appreciated the talent applied to making a video that had us all thinking and talking about Uganda and the DRC, Sudan and South Sudan and the Central African Republic.

Recognizing the video as aimed primarily at an American audience with ancillary worldwide distribution in our spontaneously globalized communication sphere may help to see this in a different way that I think might be constructive. It’s a viewpoint that I eventually stumbled into after reading a lot of Ugandan, aid-focused, “Africanist,” marketing, tech and media commentary–much of which is important and useful, but left me unsatisfied as well.

If we look at this as a Southern California American film about East Africa, and compare it to Out of AfricaThe Constant Gardener and The Last King of Scotland, maybe we can appreciate the genius of the use of the medium in a way that has captivated so many millions of people, a way that is a little more current, and aspires to accomplish something more.

Of the cultural events in the United States in my lifetime that have some real connection to East Africa, “Obama2008” is surely the biggest, but “KONY2012” has eclipsed the big one from back in my day, the 1985 Sydney Pollack film Out of Africa starring Robert Redford and Meryl Streep. Romanticized nostalgia for a whitewashed version of European colonialism in Kenya with two of Hollywood’s biggest and most appealing stars had some real influence, and still does to this day. The image is good for American tourism to Kenya–so from a “chamber of commerce” viewpoint this has been in a way positive–there is money to be made from this nostalgia.   But it was probably a setback toward getting Americans to grant full agency to black Kenyans and indirectly contributed to the depersonalization that facilitated our support for the “one party state” of Moi, continuing right up through the problem of Kenya’s “Invisible Voters” in the 2007 election.

For Americans of a certain age,Out of Africa is right there along with Born Free and Mutual of Omaha’s Wild Kingdom in our images of East Africa.  Robert Redford alongside Ernest Hemingway.  By the mid-80s we had started to really settle on heroic images for the leadership of the civil rights movement in the United States–if Hollywood had produced a blockbuster about the Kenyan democracy movement instead of a European story set in colonial fields, some of us might have been inspired rather than just charmed and entertained.

In The Constant Gardener, a more fictionalized but topical LeCarre story, we have flawed but sensitive and aware white Europeans trying to fight the evil designs of their fellow outsiders in Kenya and the region. We even see Kibera and dance the dance and feel the vibe. But of course it is all doomed to failure.  None of that naive “new world” hope here, thank you.

In The Last King of Scotland, we move to Uganda, so in a sense we are getting warmer, and invent a white character to interact with the snippets of past history of African debauchery because that’s easier than imagining a Ugandan who could really tell us about all this, and in whom we will be as interested.

KONY2012 comes in at slightly under 30 minutes, so its quite a bit shorter than these full length feature films. But it’s more ambitious and packs a punch. It has been seen by millions and motivated thousands of those to actually read and learn something about Uganda and bordering countries today. It addresses a strange situation in which Congress passed legislation and the administration has sent U.S. troops to chase a foreign “warlord”. Most Americans were apparently completely unaware that this had even happened, and millions more now know. Sure, the video is going to strike Ugandans as patronizing (I live in Mississippi, so I know about being patronized, and how tiresome it can be, as well as the pain of an image that accentuates the worst and the past rather than the present and ignores the trajectory), but in the context of “Hollywood” film, KONY2012 can also been seen as representing some significant generational progress. We are only 18 years after apartheid and 27 years after Out of Africa. The filmmakers themselves may not be master strategists of conflict resolution and criminal justice, international relations and aid effectiveness–but there is surely here some authentic spark of passion that does recognize a common humanity with the victims of violence that when shared seems to be something more hopeful.  Something that this upcoming generation can chose to be inspired by and make use of.

And do check out the LRA Crisis Tracker alongside this academic article, “Culture, Cultivation and Colonialism in Out of Africa and Beyond.”

“Incredible Shrinking Kibera”–a lesson that should inspire humility in Western capitals

When we see popular uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya that no one in the United States or the West more generally seems to have anticipated we ought naturally to be drawn to some soul searching about how much we really know about societies and countries in Africa–and how what we do know gets filtered and reported back to policy makers and the public at home.

My experience in East Africa and what I have learned since certainly suggested caution and humility to me.  One particular glaring example I can highlight is the fiasco of what I will call “Incredible Shrinking Kibera”.  First let’s start with the setting:  right in the heart of Nairobi, one of the most cosmopolitan African capitals in many respects–a city that is a magnet for Western expats, in particular offices of international organizations and NGOs on a regional or Africa-wide basis, as well as a huge regional diplomatic presence.  Lots of tourists from the UK and the US in particular.  Yet, it has turned out that Western conventional wisdom about Nairobi has included numbers for the population of the Kibera informal settlement (“the largest slum in Africa”) that are vastly beyond those cited in Kenya’s new census.  Either the conventional wisdom about 1 million people, or perhaps many more, living in Kibera was vastly inflated, or the new Kenya census finding only a fraction of that population is completely flawed–or both if the real population is, say, double the census figure and less than half the “conventional wisdom”.   If Kenya can’t get anywhere close in a census, even in Nairobi, then how serious can we really be about drawing new boundaries and electoral districts and free and fair elections with equal voting rights for all citizens next year?  If the census is close, then a lot of us in the West have been shown to be either seriously misinformed about something that shouldn’t be so hard to know, or of “spinning” beyond the bounds of a fair representation of the facts.  I myself have referenced the “conventional wisdom” without the skepticism that I should have had.

I was fortunate to have a friend in Kibera and thus an introduction to one family and community in one neighborhood there, as well as being involved in a pre-election survey of the Langata parliamentary constituency in December 2007 and in observing a bit of the voting in one of the more upscale areas on election day with our international delegates.  I started to scratch the surface.  Personally, my family and I had more connection to Kawangware.  Wherever you live in Nairobi, if you are interested, you can pick a nearby informal settlement and start getting acquainted.

Here is a good blog about Kibera:

“Slum Tourism in Kibera: Education or Exploitation?” Brian Ekdale

4) Don’t assume you understand Kibera after spending a couple of hours there. I’ve been there 10 months and still learn new things every day. Kibera is a very complex place. People like to say 1 million residents, but population figures are contested. Not every organization is doing what they say they are doing. Not everyone is impoverished (I know some who have good jobs but would rather financially support their families and neighbors than move to a wealthy area and leave behind those that helped raise them). Now that you’ve been there, go back and read those articles and watch those videos I mentioned in #2.

5) Don’t think Nairobi is a city of contradictions. Sure, you can get a mocha and french toast at Nairobi Java House, go on a Kibera tour in the late morning, and then grab some upscale Indian food at Yaya Centre for lunch without traveling very far. But understand the Java House/Yaya/Westgate life does not exist in spite of Nairobi’s slum population, they exist because of Nairobi’s slum population. Cheap labor built those massive structures. Cheap labor stocked the shelves. And cheap labor keeps them running. That labor walks home at night to sleep in Kibera, or Korogocho, or Mathare, etc.

Maziwa Fresh by AfriCommons
Maziwa Fresh, a photo by AfriCommons on Flickr.

Key New Report from AFRICOG on Kenyan Privatization Ahead of 2012 Election

AFRICOG, the African Centre for Open Government, in Nairobi has released “Deliberate Loopholes” an extensive report on the the privitization/divestiture of Telkom Kenya and Safaricom.  Just as the Safaricom deal went through just before the 2007 election in spite of ODM litigation to block it, new deals are coming with the 2012 election approaching, including likely sale of the Government of Kenya’s stake in 11 more hotels, for example:

“Deliberate Loopholes”describes some of the lapses that occurred in the privatisation of Telkom Kenya and Safaricom: the title refers to the deliberate evasions and subterfuges that created a fertile climate for asset stripping and corruption by senior officials whose identity continues to remain shrouded behind the veil of secrecy provided by international tax havens and off-shore financial centres. The preliminary findings of this study were presented to Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee (PAC), which took the matter to the floor of the House.

AfriCOG’s interest in this area stems from its mandate to build and entrench an anti-corruption culture through informed and determined public action, both in the public and private sectors. Effective privatisation requires a robust regulatory environment. Regulators need to be independent in delivering on their mandate and achieving outcomes that protect the public interest and advance Kenya’s development. However, these bodies face the constant reality or threat of capture by special interests.

Kenya is currently engaged in an extensive series of privatisation exercises, with around 23 majorpublic enterprises slated for or engaged in some sort of privatisation. The unanswered questions surrounding the sale of the Laico Grand Regency Hotel are still fresh in the public’s memory. By providing objective information on the privatisation of Telkom Kenya and Safaricom, AfriCOG aims to promote public knowledge and vigilance on other public divestment ventures. Furthermore, the general public has a huge stake in privatisation considering the significant investments that citizens have made in building these institutions in the first place and the gains that ordinary investors hope to make from their divestiture.

Given the market dominance of the entities involved and the endemic corruption that plagues Kenya, it is perhaps inevitable that many of these exercises have been shrouded in political controversy. From experience, large scale privatisation is a process that can be particularly prone to political corruption, or the theft of public resources to fund elections. Since 2012 portends a particularly hard-fought and conflictual election,
heightened scrutiny against possible abuse of privatisation of state-owned enterprises with the aim of financing politics would be prudent.

Am I a “Do Gooder”? Assessing my “East Africa” Footprint

The VOA has a worthwhile five part series on increasing Western investment in Africa–start here.

A friend of mine recently suggested that I had become something of a “do gooder” while she had become more of a believer in free markets from a background more on the left politically.  Got me thinking about the totality of my interactions with East Africa.  I invest retirement savings in a U.S. traded fund of the stocks of companies with predominantly African business and the stocks of a few individual African companies and companies with significant African business.  Some of my retirement money is invested, outside of my desire or control, in the companies that market cigarettes in East Africa.  My wife and I make some private efforts to help with needs associated with a non-profit program serving underprivileged children in Nairobi, and helped raise some additional money for this through our church, where we also support the regular “mainstream” mission work.  We give a little bit of money to one of the big humanitarian relief organizations where I had some personal contact and a little bit of money to “The One Acre Fund“.  I pay my taxes toward the salary and benefits of the full spectrum of U.S. government employees and contractors living in Kenya from the Ambassador on down and all the infrastructure supporting them.  As a lawyer, my “day job” which I don’t write about here, is a matter of public record:  I work in a part of the “defense industry” in which we make the majority of the ships typically used to make up the U.S. Navy’s anti-piracy task force off the Horn of Africa.

When I lived in Kenya I tried to take advantage of the time I had to be among Kenyans rather than spending too much time among the expats, but my family and I did participate in a fair bit of tourism and patronized the usual Nairobi businesses that I have learned are to a substantial extent owned by people who got them through misuse of public office rather than through competition in a “free market”.  I do like the concept of free markets and will hope for more of them in Kenya in the future.

And I moralize on this blog, which is free.

So, on balance, I don’t think I make bona-fide “do gooder” status.   I will say that of all the problems and challenges at large in the world, the unintended consequences of the actions of “do gooders” don’t make it very high on my list at present.  I am all for skepticism and evaluation of effectiveness in aid programs, for instance, but I think ulterior or conflicting interests, and your basic greed and venality are much bigger problems than the negatives associated with well-intentioned but misguided or otherwise unsuccessful attempts to help people.  (Note that I don’t take responsibility for Government to Government assistance in my category of things that “do gooders” may be accountable for.)

Howard French–“Taking Flight in Africa: Air Travel, Soft Power, and Development” in The Atlantic

Taking Flight in Africa: Air Travel, Soft Power, and Development – The Atlantic.

Howard French returns to transcontinental flying in Africa and observes the role of the Americans and the Chinese and NGOs in context.  Please read.

Good News: Kenya busts unlicensed tourist camps in Maasai Mara

The Government of Kenya has acted to shut down 13 of the unlicensed camps in the Maasai Mara, reports the Business Daily:

This follows an inspection of the reserve last month that established that 80 per cent of the 115 properties are licensed.

Thirteen were operating illegally while others are either being constructed or have been closed for renovation.

“These properties are denying the government revenue and tough action has to taken,” said Tourism minister Najib Balala as he presented the findings of the inspection team.

It was also established that poor governance by group ranches and conservancies, especially in land sub-divisions, had led to a high concentration of facilities in the Koiyiaka and Siana areas.

Most of the affected facilities were tented camps in Siana.

The report also noted that an advertisement put out in the media warning property owners of the impending inspection led to a rush for licences.