Uganda: “Angry Donors Threaten Aid Cut”

From The Observer in Kampala: “Angry Donors Threaten Aid Cut”.

The World Bank Country Director, speaking “on behalf of the donors” funding 30 percent of Uganda’s budget, spoke to key government ministers at an event at which Museveni was expected to attend, after the media was asked to leave. While praising economic progress, she said that the donor group was upset by the failure to make serious progress against corruption to the point of evaluating punitive measures. She also noted the threat posed by high population growth, at 3.2% leading to propulation projections of 100 million by 2050.

Related story at The Standard from Nairobi and The Guardian.

In 2005 The New Vision reported on a confidential World Bank report coauthored by Dr. Joel Barkan, Senior African Governance Advisor.

The reports adds, “Since the Bank cannot weight in explicitly on Uganda’s political process, this is the only mechanism at its disposal [lowering aid levels] to signal its concern. Conversely, the continued provision of high levels of budget support, especially when such support can be diverted into classified budgets and used for political purposes, indirectly involves the Bank in the political process”.

“To continue budgetary support at present levels risks embarrassment to the Bank, especially after it has been warned, not only by this report, but in what is common knowledge and discourse among leading members of the diplomatic community in Kampala,” the report says.

Sec. Clinton Keynote at National Prayer Breakfast and Museveni

I like the speech.  Interesting that she has gotten to know Museveni through this event. I hope that this somehow means she could be a positive influence, rather than meaning that he is more likely to get away with more in Uganda. Certainly having Moi campaigning for him is not encouraging.

The deteriorating situation in Somalia will likely give him that much more standing with those in Washington who value his troops in AMISOM to the point that they are willing to overlook other issues.

Somaliland/Somalia, Moi, Uganda, Corruption, Deep South

*”Somaliland: The Invisible Country” from Virginia Quarterly Review via The Somaliland Times.

*Nick Wadhams on “a really stupid idea” for Somalia.

*Interesting to see Moi in Uganda campaigning for Museveni’s re-election. What’s the message? “We shouldn’t have to bother with this voting stuff, but turn out for your President and The Party”? Things do seem to be gearing up among Kenyan politicos for Uganda’s election. See this Op/Ed: “Only Moi, Mugabe Could Have Come for ‘NRM Day’“.

*Negative report eariler this month disclosing unfavorable terms for previously secret Ugandan oil contracts with Tullow has helped keep the ball in the air perhaps.

*”US-Uganda Arms May Be Aiding Al-Shabaab says NGO“. From the Daily Monitor: “TFG lacks the capacity to prevent the diversion of substantial quantities of its own weaponry and military equipment to other armed groups and to Somalia’s domestic arms markets”. Full Amnesty International report.

*On the corruption front, the US is seeking extradition of a UK lawyer for allegedly trying to induce a colleague to give false evidence in the prosecution of the case that led to the $579M fine against Halliburton for bribes to Nigerian officials. In the meantime, the UK Serious Fraud Office seems to be moving forward in matters involving BAE which could include the alleged Tanzanian bribery.

*From the Deep South: The Los Angeles Times covers two interesting assistance/development efforts in the Mississippi Delta and Lower Alabama.

 

Working on(or over?) the Railroad–“What is emerging as one of Kenya’s most infamous privatisation scandals” and “the new scramble for Africa”

In the category of: Now They Tell Us—

The Daily Nation is replete with stories and commentary on the Mombasa-Kampala railroad and the various claims and disputes among the parties to the Rift Valley Railroad concession, granted in 2005 for a term of 25 years and reporting about the original “wheeling and dealing” that set up the current failure of the operation.

Today’s installment asserts “Future of Rail Firm to be Decided Wednesday” at a meeting between the Kenyan and Ugandan governments and feuding shareholders.

When Kibera slum dwellers uprooted the railroad tracks during the 2008 post-election violence, it seemed to be taken by some from the West as confirmation of a violent and uncontrollable nature of the Opposition, as well as perhaps by some as consistent with certain ethnic stereotypes–and was said to be be a major international incident due to reduced supplies to Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi. Unfortunately, it would appear that even greater property damage has been done–albeit more genteelly and more discretely, by better dressed people with a lot more money–over a period of years in the privatization. I say nothing in defense of vandalism here, but just simply point out that some forms of property destruction get condemned while others get financed.

How plan to privatize railways became Kenya’s public sector reform nightmare; Desire to save face traunched the reality that Kenya and Uganda were handing over a national asset in a fundamentally flawed deal

The World Bank extended a Sh6 billion loan to pay off the sacked workers. But, despite all these concessions, Mr Puffet turned up with an empty pocket on November 1.

According to experts who have been involved in such deals, it would have been possible to detect that Mr Puffet did not have money right from the start if the due diligence conducted was thorough and if the Treasury had demanded for guarantees that the money is available.

To save the situation, the governments and the International Finance Corporation (IFC), which is owned by the World Bank, hastily amended the contracts by introducing two legal devices that would enable Mr Puffet to raise the money required in 30 days before he could be handed over the railway.

Mr Puffet and his financial adviser from PWC, Mr Vishal Agarwal, started by knocking on the usual doors looking for the cash at firms such as major private equity shops and investment houses, but many could not touch the deal — despite the world then being awash with excess money — because either the window to close the deal was too short, or they were put off by the political risk and the shareholding squabbles that plagued Rift Valley Railways (RVR).

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Bits to Start the Week–Coffee, Al Shabaab, EA Common Market, CIA

More on Kenyan coffee branding from the Business Daily. Kenya’s coffee sector makes up 3.5% of GDP–annual production is currently 50,000, having peaked at 130,000 tonnes in 1989/89, with the decline attributed to “mismanagement, indebtedness and bad returns”
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“Al-Faisal’s gone, questions linger” from Muthoni Wanyeki’s column in the East African.
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Also from the East African, Charles Onyango-Obbo on the East African Common Market: “Who’s Afraid of Big Bad Kenya?”

One commonly hears statements like the “Kenyan economy is bigger than Tanzania’s and Uganda’s combined.” Yes, but that was 20 years ago.

Kenya’s gross domestic product in 1990 was $11 billion. Tanzania’s was $5.4 billion, and Uganda’s $4.03 billion. Kenya’s economy then was bigger than Tanzania and Uganda combined; twice that of Tanzania, and nearly three times Uganda’s.

By 2008, Kenya’s GDP was $31 billion. However Tanzania’s was $21 billion, and Uganda’s $15.8 billion. It’s no longer bigger than Tanzania’s and Uganda’s combined; it is not double that of Tanzania; nor is it three times bigger than Uganda’s. Indeed, depending on the GDP figures you look at in three or so years, Tanzania could be East Africa’s largest economy.

The story of the past 20 years in East Africa, therefore, is not how large Kenya’s economy is compared with those of its neighbours, but rather how much the others have closed the gap.

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“Row Clouds Process to Pick New KAA Boss to Replace Muhoho” from the Sunday Nation is a “must read” as for anyone that wants to assess how locked down or open opportunities in Kenya are now in the second Kibaki administration and how public business gets done.
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Last for now, but not necessarily least, the Standard on CIA Director Leon Panetta’s visit to Nairobi.

Lots of Links–Kenya

Good news, to follow up on my previous post about Nescafe and Kenya, here is a report from CapitalFM titled “Kenyan Coffee Gets Branded” about a new effort to add and capture value for Kenyan growers by the Kenyan Coffee Board. Note the point about decreasing production associated with real estate development.***

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Something I missed in the Committee of Experts draft Constitution:  provision that would eliminate portaits of individuals from currency and coins (in other words Kenyatta and Moi–and no new Kibaki money to come).  Said to be first recent effort at enacting such a law globally. (Strikes me as a great idea–subject to wise phase in. Maybe next there could be a radical move like taking down the picture of the president in the dry cleaners, the book shop, the cafe, etc. . . . )

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New Kenyan Media–Kenya Today “Breaking News 24/7” on the web. CEO is Jerry Okungu. Congrats and good luck!

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Kenyanpolitics on blogger.

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News from VP Kalonzo Musoyka’s church visit in Jinja on his Uganda trip.

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Jeffrey Gettleman reviews Michela Wrong’s It’s Our Turn to Eat in the New York Review of Books (behind subscription wall or $3 for article purchase 3700 words).
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***Hee–a classic lesson in Kenya:  Here is a report of the “good news” that Kenya is going to brand its coffee–not to mention roast the beans in Kenya and market it in Europe–from . . . 2005. (HT Argen Westra)

Human Rights Watch–New World Report/Kenya Chapter

From the new Human Rights Watch World Report. Note: “The police regularly targeted civilians for killings and other violence in 2009, as in previous years.” http://www.hrw.org/en/world-report-2010/kenya

The Uganda chapter is here, and the Ethiopia chapter is here.

“How Kenyan Politics is Shaping Uganda Election Campaign”

New Standard item on linkages between Kenyan and Ugandan parties/factions.  This has a lot of potential to contribute to indirection and lack of transparency in both countries, with lots of extraneous interests–and one more thing to distract Kenyan politicians from getting anything done in the Government of National Unity in the meantime.

In the Quicksands of Somalia | Foreign Affairs

In the Quicksands of Somalia | Foreign Affairs.

I highly recommend this article which I have referred to several friends.  The author was the program officer at the National Endowment for Democracy who worked with our Kenya program funding and I met her briefly on the way to Africa in June 2007.  From my perspective, she seems to have it right and I would simply add that the consequences of the US support for first the invasion by Ethiopia, and then the African Union force to try to uphold the Transitional Federal Government have included the US incurring debts to be paid to other governments in the region, including Kenya and Uganda.